Asset management

We combine deep qualitative analysis by our team of investment specialists with powerful quantitative analysis from our proprietary software to inform an unconstrained approach for strong, risk-adjusted returns.

March 2019 investment update

Markets have rallied despite what appears to be the largest economic deceleration in recent years. How long will markets ignore the fact that corporate revenue, earnings and margin forecasts are deteriorating? It seems as if risk markets once again see bad news as good news, writes Dolfin’s Head of Investment Management, Richard Gray.

The future of wealth management is bionic

Wealth managers have long seen robo-advice and human expertise as distinct alternatives. But, argues Dolfin CEO Denis Nagy, firms can offer the two in tandem – and they must, if they are to avoid being left behind.

Dolfin COO named in PAM Top 40 Under 40

Amir Nabi has been recognised in this year’s prestigious list of industry high-achievers published by PAM Insight.

April 2018 investment update

Vassilis Papaioannou, CIO, introduces our investment update for April. The document contains an overview of our views on the various asset classes, macroeconomic analysis for the US, UK and the euro area, as well as a range of high conviction investment ideas in equities and fixed income.

Download Report pdf, 744 KB
6 April 2018 / Monthly investment updates
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Dolfin

The first quarter was a tale of two halves, with January delivering some of the best equity returns seen over than month in 40 years, quickly superseded by a correction with equity market down 10 per cent. The V-shape recovery, we correctly predicted, faded as Trump’s tariffs made investors uneasy, creating clouds over the ‘synchronised global growth’ narrative.

Trump’s tariffs made investors uneasy, creating clouds over the ‘synchronised global growth’ narrative.

What do Trump’s tariffs mean for the rest of the pro-trade world? More trouble for the “Goldilocks economy” or is it a negotiating tactic? We argue it is both, as the first tariffs on steel and aluminium were used mainly as a pressure point against Canada and Mexico during the NAFTA negotiations, shortly after most US allies were exempted from the tariffs until further notice. The $50bn tariffs against China go beyond trade balance. They signal a tug of war over the new digital economy of artificial intelligence, digital payments, cybersecurity and intellectual property rights. Of course, in a tit for tat trade war the only outcome is a lose-lose. Hence, we expect markets to remain volatile which informs our neutral stance and having selective buying in mind.

The lack of consensus, persistent volatility and the Fed’s commitment to policy normalisation create a blurry picture for equities and fixed income. We remain neutral on global fixed income, with a preference for US credit on an absolute and relative basis. Carry is king in the investment grade and high yield space, but we look for short duration issues from high quality companies despite tight spreads globally. A hawkish Fed within equity volatility and a reluctant ECB to tapering will keep rates stable and curves flat, thus providing some comfort to the fixed income investors.

Turning to equities, we remain cautious with the euro area remaining our favourite region. Growth sensitive sectors will remain under pressure, however as we enter the earnings seasons and with a solid macroeconomic backdrop, we should see some relief rally. We are looking for opportunities in financials, consumer and technology. The recent data breach scandal that sent Facebook stock haywire and Trump’s obsession with Amazon, might cause temporary profit taking but the technology theme remains intact. High dividend companies in the UK appear attractive and combined with a positive sterling outlook constitute an interesting choice for international investors.

The lack of consensus, persistent volatility and the Fed’s commitment to policy normalisation create a blurry picture for equities and fixed income.

Finally, exposure to gold and silver (commodities or miners) together with emerging market regions that have low dependency on the US dollar or US trade policies should enhance portfolio diversification.

Our long-term thesis for higher rates and higher equities remains unchanged, but we find it prudent to remain on our neutral positioning for April.

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About us

Founded as a London-based wealth boutique in 2013, today we’re a diversified financial services firm with an international presence and our own bespoke technology platform.

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