Investment accounts

Authorised and regulated by the UK’s FCA to provide investment accounts, we are bound by CASS rules to segregate and protect client assets.

August 2019 investment update

With US vs China and UK vs the EU we anticipate bouts of elevated volatility in H2 2019 – which will require nimble movement in and out of equity markets to avoid losses. Our August monthly investment update is now available to download and view online.

Private islands and digital detox: luxury travel in 2019

A new generation of high-net-worth individuals are demanding new levels of luxury and one-of-a-kind experiences from their holidays – and the industry is stepping up to provide for them.

Dolfin Quarterly magazine now available online

For the first time since we began publishing it in 2017, our latest DQ magazine is available for download. If you haven’t yet picked up your printed copy at our offices, please help yourself to the Summer 2019 issue as a PDF below.

March 2018 investment update

Vassilis Papaioannou, CIO, introduces our investment update for March. The document contains an overview of our views on the various asset classes, macroeconomic analysis for the US, UK and the euro area, as well as a range of high conviction investment ideas in equities and fixed income.

Download Report pdf, 520 KB
6 March 2018 / Monthly investment updates
Author

The recent declaration by the Trump administration about imposing tariffs on steel and aluminium imports is causing great concern and equity volatility is on the rise again. We are monitoring developments closely, as an escalation towards trade wars could jeopardise the global recovery and change the synchronised growth narrative. It is clear this move will weaken the US dollar with direct beneficiaries the emerging market space and commodities. Whether EM and commodities can sustain a global slowdown remains an open question.

“An escalation towards trade wars could jeopardise the global recovery.”

In the aftermath of the technical correction during February, equity markets recovered quickly (v-shaped) only to encounter new obstacles (such as Trump’s isolationist policies and a more hawkish Fed). The main reason for the increased anxiety is the absence of safe haven alternatives. A more hawkish Fed reduces gold’s appeal, low or negative real government yields around the world make bonds an overvalued asset class, and Trump’s isolationist policies are shaping the US dollar’s downward path.

Fed Chairman Powell, during his testimony before the US Congress this week, hinted four hikes for 2018. Under a four hikes and strong US economy scenario, we expect the 10yr yield closer to 4 per cent by year end. A higher inflation reading with higher yields (short and long end) within an upward sloping curve does not concern us. Trump’s policies do.

In Europe, where positive equities momentum seems nowhere to be found, investors are still trying to find a balance between the strong macroeconomic backdrop, pending political results, and Dalio’s massive short bet against the region. Major risks are the pending confirmation by SPD members of the grand coalition in Germany and the upcoming elections in Italy.

“We changed our allocation towards a neutral stance as we believe March to be the decisive month for the next move in equity and fixed income markets.”

In general, risky assets would require some time to consolidate around current levels within heightened volatility as the excessive Sharpe ratios of the major equity benchmarks we have been witnessing for the past years need to normalise. For this reason, we decided to move our allocation towards a neutral stance as we believe March to be the decisive month for the next move in equity and fixed income markets. Our long-term thesis for higher rates and higher equities has not changed, but we find it prudent to remain on the side-lines during March. We still like European equities, US technology, and financials but everything depends on the macroeconomic backdrop.

Investment accounts

Dolfin’s investment accounts safeguard securities and cash, while ensuring you or your clients can take full advantage of multi-asset, multi-currency, and multi-strategy investments.

Learn more

About us

Founded as a London-based wealth boutique in 2013, today we’re a diversified financial services firm with an international presence and our own bespoke technology platform.

Learn more