We combine deep qualitative analysis by our team of investment specialists with powerful quantitative analysis from our proprietary software to inform an unconstrained approach for strong, risk-adjusted returns.
From a macroeconomic perspective:
• We regard the US as still on track for growth
The recent data release in the US proved that the economy remains in a healthy shape. Looking at the latest Beige book, we see a match between the data and the messages telegraphed by the Fed: tight labour markets but still mild inflationary growth are the key messages.
• The UK is blowing hot and cold
The economic data in the UK remains strong and the recent concerns about Mark Carney’s future as the governor of the Bank of England have dissipated with policymakers giving strong reassurance that the Central Bank still has a lot of ammunition in a downside-case scenario. Moreover, the updated economic projections from the BoE are now tilted more to an upside compared to the August projections in the Inflationary report.
• The Eurozone is gathering economic momentum
During the last European Central Bank meeting, tapering was not discussed and abrupt ending of bond purchases is unlikely. We stick to the market view that expects a gradual decrease in the Asset Purchase Programme by the ECB in March 2017, with the asset repurchased in amount of EUR 60bn per month going forward (compared to EUR 80bn per month now). The economic data in the region is set to remain strong.